Sunday, April 30, 2006

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

I just remembered that during one of the NM Gaming tutorials, one of the group presenters spoke about the idea of the self-fulfilling prophecy. I find this concept rather interesting so I went to look it up. Basically, it's about a person who somehow has knowlegde of what is going to happen in the future, but having this knowledge actually makes the person to cause the incident to happen.

From Wikipedia:


A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that, in being made, actually causes itself to become true. For example, in the stock market, if it is widely believed that a crash is imminent, investors may lose confidence, sell most of their stock, and actually cause the crash. Or, if a candidate in an election openly declares they do not believe they can win, this may increase voter apathy and result in poor support for their campaign.
Self-fulfilling prophecies are often seen as similar to the predestination paradox, in which a person travels back in time to prevent an event, but ends up causing it. These two phenomena differ on a key point however. A self-fulfilling prophecy is when a person with belief of future events alters his behaviour in a way that ends up causing these events. On the other hand, a predestination paradox is when a person with knowledge of past events goes back in time, and ends up causing the events.

Psychology

Self-fulfilling prophecy is sometimes seen as a manifestation of positive feedback in human society. In short, because a given prophecy was known, and was sufficiently credible, it affected people's actions and caused itself. Robert K. Merton is usually acknowledged as the originator of this phrase.
Examples abound in studies of cognitive dissonance theory and the related self-perception theory; People will often change their attitudes to come into line with what they profess publicly.

Other specific examples discussed in psychology include:
• Clever Hans effect
• Observer-expectancy effect
• Hawthorne effect
• Placebo effect
• Pygmalion effect

Modern

Spoiler warning: Plot and/or ending details follow.

In more recent arts, the plot of the 2005 movie Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith was based around a self-fulfilling prophecy. The main character, Anakin Skywalker, has a premonitory dream about the death of his wife Padmé Amidala, and searches for a way to save her. However, his solution is what ends up killing her.

In Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Harry sees his "father" save him and Sirus Black. After traviling back in time with a time turner, he tries to meet his "father" but realize it was himself standing there that he saw as his father.

In Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, a prophecy was made at Harry Potter’s birth, saying that neither he nor Dark Lord could live while the other survived. To protect himself, the Dark Lord attempted to kill Harry Potter while he was an infant, but his curse backfired on him. Because of the transfer of power that occurred as a result this, the prophecy now has to be fulfilled in order for them to live in peace.

In the computer game Guild Wars, it is prophesied that some Chosen will destroy a race called "Mursaat". To prevent the prophecies from coming true, the Mursaat and some of their worshippers, the White Mantle, kill as many Chosen as possible. However, when a group of heroes see the Chosen being killed, they turn against and eventually destroy the White Mantle and the Mursaat to prevent further killings, only later to discover that they are Chosen.

Series Eight of the British comedy Red Dwarf sees a self-fullfilling prophecy started by the words "In twenty minutes all the Canaries will be dead, except for Rimmer. Rimmer will die in forty seconds of a heart attack from the shock of being told he's going to have a heart attack."

Several classic episodes of The Twilight Zone used a self-fulfilling prophecy. One example is What's in the Box, in which a man sees himself (on television) killing his wife because she had an affair. He tries to confront his wife about it, but ends up killing her.

The movie The Matrix heavily incorporates the idea of self-fulfilling prophecy. One recognizable scene that directly references it is when Morpheus takes Neo to see the Oracle. When Neo walks in to speak to the Oracle, she says "I'd ask you to sit down, but you're not going to anyway. And don't worry about the vase." Neo then says "What vase?" and knocks over and breaks a vase that is sitting on a counter next to him. Neo apologizes and the Oracle tells him not to worry about it. Neo asks how she knew, to which the Oracle responds, "What's really going to bake your noodle later on is: would you still have broken it if I hadn't said anything?"

Spoilers end here.

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